Rasmussen has just released a new poll showing John Sununu defeating Jeanne Shaheen 52-45 (9/23).
I don’t have access to Rasmussen internals, so I don’t have any insights into any of the details.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
This is a dramatic reversal from their last poll of this race approximately a month ago (8/19) that showed Shaheen ahead 51-40. It is also at odds with the ARG’s poll last week that showed it a 52-40 Shaheen lead. (Although a UNH poll – with lots of problems – showed only a 4 point Shaheen lead and an NRSC/Sununu internal showed it at 2% ahead for Shaheen).
(According to Pollster, the only other poll of the last 1 1/2 years that has shown Sununu in front was one from Republican pollster ARG in Dec 07)
We know that Rasmussen tends to over-represent Republicans in their samples, but this seems like an real outlier even for them. Nothing in NH has happened that would produce a 12 point increase for Sununu (or a 6 point drop for Shaheen).
Also makes one question their last presidential result in the state, where they showed McCain gaining and ahead of Obama by 2% (at a time when Obama has been consistently going up nationally).
I’ve always expected this race to tighten up before election day, but this kind of dramatic shift seems way off base.